Polymarket Trading skill

Polymarket Sports Betting

⚠️ CRITICAL RULES (Non-Negotiable)

1. SPORTS ONLY — Never bet on crypto, politics, or geopolitics. Crypto markets are manipulated by insiders.
2. Favorites only — Minimum 70% implied probability on bookmakers (averaged across 20+ books via The Odds API).
3. No long shots — Ever. Long shots = money pit.
4. The best trade is sometimes no trade — If nothing qualifies, say so.
5. Every bet must be high conviction — Target 70%+ win rate across all bets.
6. Verify Polymarket availability — Many matches aren't listed on PM. Never recommend a bet without confirming the PM market exists and resolving the token ID.
7. Football 3-way markets are harder — PM splits win/draw/lose probability differently than bookmakers. Flag this to the user.

Wallet & Keys

• Address: 0xCa5e2a326DE9544EAe2810E3f0E4e1d4Cef1847b
• Chain: Polygon (USDC.e)
• Positions API: https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user=0xCa5e2a326DE9544EAe2810E3f0E4e1d4Cef1847b
• Keys: macOS Keychain, account stuart:
  • polymarket-wallet-key, polymarket-api-key, polymarket-api-secret, polymarket-api-passphrase
  • odds-api-key (The Odds API)

Supported Sports

Scripts

All scripts are in the skill directory: ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/

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Workflow

Step 1: SCAN — Fetch Bookmaker Odds

Run the scan script to find qualifying bets:

# Scan all sports
node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/scripts/scan.mjs --all-sports

# Single sport
node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/scripts/scan.mjs --sport=basketball_nba

# Custom probability threshold
node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/scripts/scan.mjs --all-sports --min-prob=0.75

The script:

1. Fetches odds from The Odds API (h2h market, EU region, decimal format)
2. Calculates implied probability per team (average of 1/decimal_odds across all bookmakers)
3. Filters to favorites above the threshold (default 70%)
4. Searches Polymarket for matching moneyline markets
5. Resolves the correct token ID for each favorite outcome
6. Fetches current PM price
7. Outputs a table with: Game, Favorite, Book Prob, PM Price, Edge, Token ID, Kickoff

Validation gate: If the script returns no picks, stop. Tell the user "No qualifying bets today." Do not lower the threshold.

Step 2: REVIEW — Validate Picks

Before presenting to the user, validate each pick:

1. Book probability ≥ 70% — Reconfirm the threshold is met
2. PM market exists — Token ID was resolved (not N/A)
3. Edge is reasonable — Edge = Book Probability - PM Price. Positive edge means PM is cheaper than books. Near-zero or negative edge is still fine (PM has better payouts than bookmakers regardless).
4. Game hasn't started — Check kickoff time vs current time
5. Football 3-way caveat — If it's a football match, note that draw probability affects the moneyline odds

Validation gate: Remove any picks where token ID is N/A or the game has already started.

Step 3: PRESENT — Show Picks to User

Present qualifying picks in a clean format:

🏀 NBA Picks — March 8, 2026

| Game | Pick | Book Prob | PM Price | Edge | Kickoff |
|------|------|-----------|----------|------|---------|
| BOS vs WAS | Boston Celtics | 88.2% | 0.87 | +1.2% | 19:00 ET |
| LAL vs DET | LA Lakers | 74.5% | 0.73 | +1.5% | 21:30 ET |

Token IDs:
- Boston Celtics: 123456789...
- LA Lakers: 987654321...

Include:

• The sport and date
• Clear table of picks
• Token IDs for execution
• Any caveats (football 3-way, low liquidity)
• Ask for explicit approval before executing any trade

Step 4: EXECUTE — Place Trades

After user approval, execute trades using trade.mjs:

# Buy $50 on Boston Celtics at 0.87
node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/trade.mjs buy <token_id> 0.87 50

Parameters:

• token_id — From the scan output
• price — The PM price (or slightly above for guaranteed fill)
• size — Dollar amount to bet

Validation gate: Always confirm with the user before executing. Show the exact command that will run.

Post-execution: Show the order response. If the order is rejected, explain why (insufficient balance, price moved, etc.).

Step 5: TRACK — Monitor Positions

Check current positions:

# Via Data API
curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user=0xCa5e2a326DE9544EAe2810E3f0E4e1d4Cef1847b"

# Or via trade.mjs
node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/trade.mjs balances

Check open orders:

node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/trade.mjs orders

Step 6: REDEEM — Collect Winnings

After markets resolve, redeem winning positions:

node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/redeem.mjs

The script automatically:

• Finds all redeemable positions
• Handles both standard and negativeRisk markets
• Redeems via CTF contract on Polygon
• Reports the new USDC.e balance

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Error Handling

Common Issues

The Odds API Quota

The free tier has 500 requests/month. Each scan of one sport = 1 request. A full --all-sports scan = 7 requests. Be mindful:

• Don't scan repeatedly in the same hour
• Check x-requests-remaining header in responses
• If close to limit, scan only the sport the user asks about

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Examples

"Scan for bets today"

1. Run: node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/scripts/scan.mjs --all-sports
2. Review output for qualifying picks
3. Present picks table to user
4. Wait for approval before trading

"Bet $100 on the Celtics"

1. Search PM for the Celtics game: node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/polymarket.mjs search "Celtics"
2. Find the moneyline market and resolve the token ID for the Celtics outcome
3. Get current price: node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/polymarket.mjs price <token_id>
4. Cross-check bookmaker odds to confirm >70% implied probability
5. Present the trade: "Buy $100 on Celtics at 0.XX (PM), books have them at YY%"
6. After approval: node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/trade.mjs buy <token_id> <price> 100

"Check my positions"

1. Fetch: curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user=0xCa5e2a326DE9544EAe2810E3f0E4e1d4Cef1847b"
2. Show open positions with current value
3. If any are redeemable: node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/redeem.mjs

"What are the odds on Real Madrid?"

1. Scan La Liga: node ~/.agents/skills/polymarket/scripts/scan.mjs --sport=soccer_spain_la_liga
2. Find Real Madrid in results
3. If they qualify (>70%), present as a pick
4. If they don't qualify, show the odds but warn it's below threshold

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Key Concepts

• Implied probability: 1 / decimal_odds — averaged across all bookmakers for consensus
• Edge: Book Probability - PM Price — positive means PM is cheaper than fair value
• Why PM over bookmakers: Better payouts (no vig baked in the same way), no KYC, instant settlement on Polygon
• This isn't arbitrage: PM tracks fair value closely. The strategy is picking safe winners and benefiting from PM's superior payout structure
• Volume: Bet size is unrestricted, but every bet must meet the conviction threshold